Molecular Metabolism

The insulin-like growth factor (IGF)/IGF-binding protein (IGFBP) axis has been implicated in diabetes mellitus and the associated burden of cardiovascular complications. Higher circulating levels of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 have been established as markers of protection from incident type 2 diabetes, yet their associations with cardiovascular disease remain unclear. Utilising the UK Biobank (UKB) resource to integrate disease outcomes, plasma proteomics and MRI data, we examined associations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 with incident diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Approximately 50,000 UKB participants with plasma proteomic measurements for IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 were included. Multivariate Cox regression models revealed that participants in the highest quartiles of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 had a substantially lower risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.31 and 0.32 respectively), but, paradoxically, had increased risks of incident macrovascular disease, all-cause and cardiovascular-related mortality (HR = 1.81 and 2.39). Both proteins were negatively associated with HbA1c levels, triglyceride/HDL ratio and abdominal adiposity, yet positively associated with NT-proBNP, troponin I, cardiac chamber size and aortic dimensions. In summary, negative associations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 with incident diabetes mellitus did not translate to a reduced cardiovascular risk, suggesting potentially complex actions of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 in the pathophysiology of cardiometabolic disease.

Background: Prolonged unsupplemented spiritual fasting (USF), complete caloric abstinence motivated by spiritual practice, is undertaken by many communities worldwide, yet its physiological consequences remain poorly characterized. No prior study has documented continuous real-time monitoring during free-living fasting beyond 10 days. Methods: We conducted a self-controlled observational study of 23 experienced Jain practitioners undergoing USF. Seventeen completed at least 8 days of fasting (11 completed eight days, six continued to 30 days); six discontinued early. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and blood biomarkers at baseline (Day-0), post-fasting (Day-9), and 60-day follow-up (Day-69) were obtained. Mood was assessed daily using PANAS. Within-participant comparisons used both parametric and non-parametric t-tests. Results: CGM revealed near-complete suppression of glycaemic variability within 24-48 hours of fasting onset, sustained throughout with no clinical hypoglycaemia in either cohort. Blood biomarkers showed transient perturbation during fasting -- including rises in hepatic enzymes, bilirubin, uric acid, creatinine, and lipid fractions -- broadly reversible by follow-up (Day-69). hsCRP rose during fasting then fell below baseline at follow-up (5.52{+/-}13.67 to 3.68{+/-}13.18 mg/L, p=0.034). HDL significantly rose above baseline (45.71{+/-}112.32 to 48.97{+/-}111.19, p=0.045) and LDL similarly declined below baseline (122.33{+/-}132.10 to 106.96{+/-}131.62 mg/dL, p=0.035); and then both significantly improved by follow-up. Thyroid axis suppression fully normalized by follow-up. Psychological wellbeing was maintained throughout. Conclusions: Extended USF produces a safely reversible pattern of acute physiological adaptation with net cardiometabolic benefit. Absence of clinical hypoglycaemia during 30-day water-only USF, documented here for the first time with CGM, provides empirical grounding for future controlled trials.

Background: Early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is critical. While faecal elastase-1 (FE-1) is a standard clinical marker for pancreatic function, its diagnostic accuracy for malignancy is limited. We sought to identify plasma metabolites that enhance FE-1 performance in symptomatic "at-risk" patients. Methods: Using the DEPEND cohort (CRUK C45617/A29908), plasma metabolomics was performed on patients with resectable PDAC (n=23) and healthy volunteers (n=24). Predictive modelling included feature selection and cross-validation, with further validation in an independent external cohort. Results: Citrulline was identified as significantly depleted in PDAC patients across discovery and validation cohorts. In isolation, Citrulline achieved an AUC of 0.86 (internal) and 0.88 (external validation). Standalone FE-1 demonstrated an AUC of 0.67. However, combining Citrulline and FE-1 significantly improved diagnostic performance, achieving a combined AUC of 0.96. Stratification revealed distinct metabolomic signatures associated with poorly differentiated tumours, suggesting a link to histological grade. Conclusions: Integrating Citrulline with FE-1 testing substantially improves PDAC detection in symptomatic patients. This non-invasive panel offers high diagnostic potential, though prospective validation is required to establish clinical cut-offs for routine practice.

Background. Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) is a leading marker of cardiorespiratory fitness and a strong predictor of all-cause mortality. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is the reference method but is resource-intensive, so consumer wearables estimate VO2max from passively collected signals; these estimates compress the fitness range, returning near-correct group averages while ranking individuals poorly. No peer-reviewed validation of a smart-ring VO2max estimate against CPET has been reported, and none in a South Asian cohort. Objective. To validate the Ultrahuman Ring AIR VO2max estimate against laboratory CPET, benchmark it against published prediction equations, and assess its generalization and construct validity. Methods. In a single-site paired ring-CPET cohort (N = 101; mean CPET peak VO2 43.3 mL{middle dot}kg-{superscript 1}{middle dot}min-{superscript 1}, SD 9.9), peak oxygen uptake was measured by treadmill or cycle-ergometer CPET, and the Ultrahuman Ring AIR estimate was computed from passively collected signals using a transparent ensemble based on published equations. Ensemble weights and calibration were selected on an 85-subject development set by an automated search minimizing a composite 5-fold cross-validated error criterion; the locked estimate was evaluated on a 16-subject held-out test set. The calibrated coefficients are proprietary. Agreement was quantified with mean absolute error (MAE), bias, Pearson r, regression slope and Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC; bootstrap 95% CIs), and Bland-Altman limits of agreement. Separately, in 181,133 de-identified Ring users (no CPET reference), construct validity was assessed against ring-measured sleep, continuous glucose monitoring (n = 2,597), and a venous blood panel (n up to 15,203), adjusted for age, sex, and BMI, with lipoprotein(a) as a pre-specified negative control. Reporting followed TRIPOD and STARD. Results. With a self-reported fitness level provided, the estimate agreed with CPET peak VO2 at MAE 4.68 mL{middle dot}kg-{superscript 1}{middle dot}min-{superscript 1} (95% CI 3.93 to 5.49), Pearson r 0.79, CCC 0.79, and slope 0.71. The five published equations were worse on every metric (MAE 6.2 to 10.6, CCC 0.28 to 0.56, slope 0.32 to 0.42), each compressing the fitness range. On the held-out test set (n = 16), agreement held (r 0.84, slope 0.81, MAE essentially unchanged). Without the fitness input, full-cohort MAE was 5.16, still ahead of every published equation. At population scale, higher estimated fitness tracked a healthier profile on measurements the estimate does not use: better ring-measured sleep; higher continuous-glucose time in target range (79.6% versus 61.5%, top versus bottom decile; n = 222 and 399 of 2,597 users); and lower triglycerides, fasting glucose, and HOMA-IR (n up to 15,203 assayed per marker). These associations held after adjustment for age, sex, and BMI, whereas the pre-specified negative control lipoprotein(a) did not separate the deciles. Conclusions. The Ultrahuman Ring AIR VO2max estimate agreed with laboratory CPET substantially better than published prediction equations, held its agreement on held-out subjects, and ordered a large population along independent cardiometabolic gradients consistent with true fitness.

Background. GLP-1 receptor agonist trials are tightly controlled: standardized titration, intensive dietary counseling, frequent in-person follow-up, and rigorous exclusion criteria. The real world is none of those things. In a U.S. telehealth GLP-1 program, diet engagement, exercise, medication choice, dose timing, and out-of-pocket cost vary substantially from patient to patient. Whether trial-level efficacy translates into the outcomes a patient and clinician will actually see is an open question, and the answer matters, because telehealth is now where most GLP-1 prescribing happens. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 13,507 adults who used a single GLP-1 agent (tirzepatide or semaglutide) through the Mochi Health telehealth obesity program and had a documented six-month weight observation. The primary outcome was achievement of >=10% total body weight loss at six months. To address selection bias in the tirzepatide-semaglutide comparison, we used 1:1 nearest-neighbor propensity-score matching on age, sex, baseline BMI, baseline weight, and comorbid diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and prior bariatric surgery (recorded at intake), with a 0.25 SD caliper on the propensity logit. We drew a directed acyclic graph (DAG) with a clinical co-author to make the identifying assumptions explicit and to mark where unobserved variables (insurance, socioeconomic status, concomitant medications such as metformin) limit causal interpretation. We report multivariable predictors via logistic regression, compute an E-value for the matched contrast, and benchmark our point estimates against landmark RCT outcomes. Results. Overall, 59.1% of patients achieved >=10% loss at six months, with mean loss of 11.5% (median 11.3%). Threshold attainment was 86.6% at >=5%, 59.1% at >=10%, 27.5% at >=15%, and 9.1% at >=20%. The unadjusted tirzepatide-semaglutide response gap was +16.0 percentage points (68.8% vs 52.8%); after 1:1 propensity-score matching (3,480 pairs, all post-match |SMD| < 0.05) the gap was +18.1 percentage points (69.6% vs 51.6%, 95% CI +15.9 to +20.3). Matching on the measured covariates did not attenuate the advantage, indicating that selection on those characteristics does not explain it; the matched risk ratio was 1.35 (E-value 2.04). The gap was unchanged when a self-reported insurance indicator was added to the matching (+18.4 pp) and remained large (+14.2 pp) within patients who reached a therapeutic dose. Multivariable predictors of response were tirzepatide (OR 2.10, 1.95-2.26), female sex (OR 1.37, 1.20-1.56), and prior bariatric surgery (OR 1.36, 1.18-1.57); response was lower with comorbid diabetes (OR 0.84, 0.77-0.92) and, modestly, with higher baseline BMI per unit (OR 0.98, 0.97-0.99). Response varied by baseline BMI, from 58.0% in overweight patients (BMI <30) and a peak of 63.5% in Obese I to 52.4% in Obese III. Conclusions. Real-world response to GLP-1 therapy in a telehealth setting is meaningfully attenuated from RCT benchmarks but remains clinically substantial: roughly three in five patients reach the 10% threshold. The tirzepatide advantage over semaglutide is large and, notably, does not shrink under propensity-score matching on measured confounders, so it is not an artifact of the observed selection variables; an unmeasured confounder would need a risk-ratio association of about 2.0 with both drug choice and response to explain it away (E-value 2.04). The findings are observational, conditional on the DAG's identifying assumptions, and unmeasured confounders (insurance, socioeconomic status, concomitant medications) remain possible.

Insulin resistance, an often-untreated precursor of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), is implicated in cognitive decline in adults, yet its impact on the developing brain in youth with obesity remains poorly understood. We investigate whether insulin resistance moderates the relation between hippocampal volume and unhealthy food-seeking in overweight and depressed youth ages 9-17 who completed an oral glucose tolerance test and a cognitive task assessing unhealthy food-seeking motivation at baseline, 6-, and 24-months follow-up, and structural MRI at baseline and 6-months follow-up. Insulin sensitivity moderated this relation: smaller baseline hippocampal subfield volumes predicted increased unhealthy food-seeking over 24 months (ps<0.05). Categorical grouping revealed subfield CA2/3 and 4 volumes predicted this relation among insulin-resistant (ps<0.05), but not insulin-sensitive (ps>0.10), youth, suggesting that threshold criteria for insulin resistance are physiologically meaningful. These findings identify a neuro-metabolic risk phenotype that precedes T2DM and may accelerate unhealthy food-seeking severity in youth with obesity.

Aims Metformin remains the primary treatment for type 2 diabetes, yet over 40% of patients fail to maintain glycaemic control. We aimed to identify patients unlikely to respond to metformin prior to treatment initiation and to evaluate whether on-treatment management can improve glycaemic outcomes in suboptimal responders, informing early treatment decisions. Materials and Methods We analyzed 59,881 longitudinal HbA1c measurements from 7,105 patients with type 2 diabetes receiving metformin monotherapy using real-world electronic health records from Kaiser Permanente Northern California with up to six years of follow-up. We integrated demographic, clinical, genetic, and pharmacological factors to characterize metformin responder phenotypes and quantify the impact of adherence and weight control on time to glycaemic failure. Results Three distinct trajectory-based phenotypes were identified: good (63.6%), poor (8.9%), and non-responders (27.5%). Poor responders initially achieved glycaemic targets but lost control within 2.5 years, while non-responders showed minimal HbA1c reduction and failed within 1 year. Five baseline factors-HbA1c, age at diagnosis, body mass index, sex, and estimated glomerular filtration rate-classified phenotypes with good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.84). Incorporating on-treatment HbA1c further enhanced identification of non-responders. Among suboptimal responders, weight control and improved adherence delayed glycaemic failure by approximately 7 months; however, eventual glycaemic failure remained likely. Conclusions We characterized three clinically relevant metformin responder phenotypes and showed that suboptimal responders can be identified early using baseline features. Poor and non-responders are unlikely to achieve durable glycaemic control with metformin alone and may require alternative treatment strategies.

While extensive cellular heterogeneity in renal cell carcinomas (RCC) is linked to diverse clinical outcomes, our understanding of this diversity is limited to those driven by clonal patterns or activity of canonical pathways. Here, we present a compendium of over 85,000 single-cell gene expression profiles from primary and metastatic tumors as well as patient-derived models across four RCC subtypes, including the rare clear cell papillary renal cell tumors, which we show are often misclassified and for which we identify CASP14 as a highly sensitive and specific biomarker. We dissect malignant cell variation within and across tumors using a generative modeling framework that accounts for clonal and copy number-driven expression shifts, defining 59 gene expression programs that deconstruct canonical pathways into functional submodules with divergent activity patterns, distinct regulators, and differential association with clinical outcomes. Despite the canonical view that VHL-deficient clear cell RCC exists in a constitutive pseudohypoxic state, we show strong intra-tumor variability of a hypoxia inducible factor 2 (HIF2)-driven program linked to poor outcome. We also identify early, spatially organized activation of a complete epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) program, loss of epithelial identity, and upregulation of protein translation programs as key characteristics of metastatic progression. Finally, a metastatic signature capturing cellular de-differentiation and translational activity identifies primary tumors associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Together, this resource establishes a framework for dissecting malignant cell heterogeneity, refines RCC subtype classification, and defines transcriptional programs underlying metastasis progression.

Background: Opioid use disorder (OUD) is heritable, yet most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have focused on European populations, leaving the genetic architecture of OUD in non-European populations underexplored. Methods: We conducted GWAS of OUD across three ancestries using electronic health records and genomic data from 52,357 All of Us Research Program participants (8,912 cases; 43,445 matched opioid-exposed controls; 48.5% female). Participants were stratified into European (EUR), African (AFR), and Admixed American (AMR) ancestry groups for logistic regression GWAS, with independent replication in the Million Veteran Program. We then applied the deep-learning model AlphaGenome to predict the tissue-specific transcriptomic and splicing consequences of top risk variants across 13 reward-pathway brain regions. Results: We identified and replicated a novel DDX6 risk locus, alongside established OPRM1 and FURIN signals. AlphaGenome predicted the DDX6 regulatory allele downregulates the stress-resistance gene FOXR1 in the nucleus accumbens, while the protective OPRM1 variant (rs1799971) upregulates OPRM1 expression across reward networks. Other signals of interest included IL6R and SHISA9 (EUR); GHR (AFR); and ASTN2 (AMR). Conclusions: This study identifies DDX6 as a novel OUD risk locus, replicates associations with OPRM1 and FURIN, and highlights biologically plausible ancestry-specific signals in AFR and AMR populations. We also replicated top variants in an independent population. Finally, integrating GWAS with deep-learning annotations provides specific, localized biological hypotheses to guide future experimental validation and targeted therapeutics.

Purpose: Nonresponse to routinely collected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) threatens the representativeness of aggregated data. We characterized patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors associated with PROMIS Global-10 nonresponse in routine radiation oncology care. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, all adults seen at five Mass General Brigham radiation oncology clinics over one year were included. The primary outcome was patient-level nonresponse, defined as never completing the portal-administered Global-10 versus completing it at least once. Using iterative mixed-effects logistic regression, we modeled patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors. Results: Among 12,214 patients, 71 providers, and five clinics, patient- and appointment-level response rates were 35.4% and 10.9%, with patient-level response ranging nearly fivefold across clinics (12.8% to 66.2%). In Model 1, male sex, lower education, not working, and recent surgery had higher odds of nonresponse, and longer time since diagnosis lower odds. After provider- and clinic-level factors were added, patient sex, education, and employment became nonsignificant, whereas recent surgery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.97) and longer time since diagnosis (aOR 0.46 for >12 months) persisted. A provider's historical collection rate was protective but attenuated at the clinic level. There, a later program launch (aOR 0.29) and higher historical collection rate (aOR 0.79) correlated with lower nonresponse, whereas academic versus community setting did not. Conclusions: Nonresponse to routinely collected PROMs is a multilevel phenomenon driven substantially by clinic-level implementation factors, not patient characteristics alone. Because response rate is only a proxy for representativeness, PROMs programs and PRO-based performance measures should prioritize representative collection over volume.

Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) are increasingly used in infectious disease research to study pathogen dynamics and evaluate interventions under controlled conditions. However, these studies are resource-intensive and involve ethical and safety constraints, making efficient study design critical. Dose-finding is a key early component in CHIMs, where the aim is to identify a challenge dose that achieves a target infection probability. Traditional rule-based designs are commonly used but can be inefficient, motivating the use of model-based adaptive approaches such as the Bayesian Continual Reassessment Method (CRM). Although CRM has been extensively studied and widely adopted in Phase I oncology trials for identifying the maximum tolerated dose of therapeutics, its application in CHIM settings remains limited, particularly when the endpoint of interest is infection. This tutorial provides step-by-step guidance for implementing a Bayesian CRM in dose-finding CHIMs, using an oropharyngeal Neisseria gonorrhoeae challenge as a motivating case study. The framework outlines key design components, including dose-grid specification, dose-response model, prior elicitation, Bayesian updating, decision rules, and stopping criteria, with particular emphasis on a clinically interpretable parameterisation. Trial operating characteristics are evaluated through simulation studies under multiple dose-response scenarios and prior-predictive analyses, and compared with a commonly used '3+3' type rule-based design. This work highlights the advantages of Bayesian model-based designs for dose-finding in CHIMs over classic rule-based designs and provides a structured, reproducible framework for implementing CRM, supporting their application in future CHIM studies.

Background and Aims The optimal treatment for first episodes and first recurrences of Clostridioides difficile infections (CDI) is unknown and there is emerging evidence for pulse and taper (P-T) regimens. Therefore, we sought to estimate the relative efficacy of treatment options. Methods MEDLINE and CENTRAL were searched from database inception to May 21, 2025 and unpublished conference abstracts were searched from recent infectious disease conferences. RCTs on the treatment of first episodes or first recurrences of CDI comparing fixed-dose or P-T regimens of fidaxomicin or vancomycin were included. The primary and secondary outcomes were 40- and 56-day CDI recurrence, respectively. A random-effects network meta-analysis on the risk ratio (RR) scale was conducted using a standard regimen (10-14 days) of vancomycin as the comparator. Treatments were ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). Results 8 RCTs were included comprising a total of 2181 patients. For 40-day recurrence, fidaxomicin P-T had the highest probability of ranking best (RR=0.10, 95%Confidence Interval [95%CI]=0.10-0.49, SUCRA=1.00), followed by vancomycin P-T (RR=0.49, 95%CI=0.32-0.76, SUCRA=0.61), fixed-dose fidaxomicin (RR=0.61, 95%CI=0.49-0.76, SUCRA=0.39), and, finally, fixed-dose of vancomycin (SUCRA=0.00). The treatments ranked in the same order for 56-day recurrence, though only 3 RCTs reported on this timepoint. Conclusion Vancomycin P-T, fidaxomicin P-T, and fixed-dose fidaxomicin were all superior to a fixed-dose vancomycin. Head-to-head comparative effectiveness RCTs are needed to quantify their relative effect sizes of and impact on long-term prevention of recurrent CDI.

Background The 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak highlighted the critical need for robust genomic surveillance capabilities to track mpox virus (MPXV) evolution and transmission dynamics. Methods Building upon our established SARS-CoV-2 sequencing infrastructure, we implemented a Molecular Loop probe-based long-read sequencing approach using Pacific Biosciences Sequel II technology for comprehensive MPXV genomic surveillance across the United States (US). From August 2024 to June 2025, we generated 326 high-quality whole genome sequences from residual mpox-positive clinical specimens collected by Labcorp across all 10 US Department of Health and Human Services regions. Results Our analysis identified two samples containing clade Ib MPXV in January and June 2025 and captured shifting trends in clade IIb diversity, with 13 distinct lineages observed. We also identified multiple instances of large (~1.6-17.6kb) deletions proximal to the inverted terminal repeats in clade IIb genomes. APOBEC3 mutation analysis indicated substantial evidence of human-to-human transmission among both clades. Further, we observed significantly higher APOBEC3-associated SNPs per kilobase (P<0.001) in clade IIb genomic variable regions relative to their central conserved region. Our assay exhibited strong reproducibility across biological replicates from individual patients and accuracy was confirmed via parallel sequencing of select specimens by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) using metagenomic sequencing. We also demonstrated via custom simulation that our assay discriminates all known MPXV clades and lineages, including those we have not observed in the US. Conclusions Our integrated nationwide surveillance system facilitates real-time genomic tracking of outbreak evolution, with demonstrated capacity across SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV, positioning this platform for rapid deployment during future pathogen emergence.

Background: Monoclonal antibodies have emerged as a prophylactic strategy to prevent symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in immunocompromised individuals. However, the evolutionary and clinical implications of breakthrough infections under this regime remain unclear. Methods: A male in their 80s with a haematological/oncological diagnosis received a 2000 mg intravenous infusion of sotrovimab in March 2023 and was diagnosed with COVID-19 by RT-qPCR from a nasopharyngeal swab in August 2023. Weekly samples (n=24) were collected through February 2024 (171 days). All samples underwent whole-genome sequencing, with select mutations subjected to functional assessment. Findings: Sequencing identified the GE.1 lineage at all timepoints. An intra-host recombination event in ORF1ab (positions 8942-12458) was detected prior to 23 weeks post-detection, followed by a 14-fold increase in viral load (7.42e+06 to 1.00e+08 RNA copies/mL) and a marked shift in the viral population. E340D, a sotrovimab resistance mutation, was detected at low abundance (46%) within the first week post-infection, fluctuated over time, and was nearly fixed by week 15 (107 days) post-detection. We assessed five spike mutations - V36M, S98F, and V213G in the N-terminal domain, Y505P in the receptor-binding domain, and P681Q near the S1/S2 cleavage site - and additionally evaluated the impact of E340D. V36M conferred the highest infectivity across all cell lines, with the most significant effect in low-TMPRSS2 cells. While all mutations showed enhanced infectivity with the addition of E340D, the effect was most pronounced in mutations with lower baseline infectivity. The addition of E340D significantly decreased relative neutralizing titres for V36M, S98F, and V213G, enabling escape from neutralizing antibodies in XBB-responsive individuals, illustrating an enhanced phenotypic advantage. Patient neutralizing activity was absent pre-sotrovimab, and sotrovimab-induced neutralization was further compromised by selection of E340D. Interpretation: Sotrovimab pre-exposure prophylaxis in an immunocompromised patient did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection, and selected for resistant mutation E340D, with unexpected fitness consequences across non-receptor binding domain spike regions.

An epidemic's expected course is determined by the magnitude and timing of a typical person's infectiousness --- captured, in turn, by the basic reproduction number and the generation-time distribution. These fundamental, population-average quantities can mask individual-level variation that shapes how an epidemic actually unfolds: for example, individual variation in the magnitude of infectiousness (overdispersion) creates superspreading, a key feature of the SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. However, the impact of individual variation in infectiousness timing is less well understood. Here, we demonstrate that individual infectiousness timing varies substantially and to different degrees across pathogens. For some common pathogens, including influenza, measles, and SARS-CoV-2, infectiousness is "bursty", or highly concentrated and variably-timed across individuals: for example, the window of appreciable infectiousness for SARS-CoV-2 may last for roughly a day, vs. the 9--12 days usually quoted. We show that bursty infectiousness creates superspreading without inherent superspreaders, makes epidemic timing more variable, amplifies the time-sensitivity of common interventions, and complicates inference of key epidemiological parameters. Together with the reproduction number, the generation-time distribution, and overdispersion, burstiness completes a family of basic parameters that govern how epidemics unfold.

Stochastic epidemic models are a cornerstone of infectious disease epidemiology and are often used to study intervention scenarios. However, large run-to-run variability can make intervention effects difficult to estimate precisely. We revisit the epidemic Sellke construction, which assigns each individual an infection threshold for the cumulative infection hazard such that, conditional on the thresholds, the epidemic trajectory becomes deterministic. This enables coupling of simulations with and without an intervention, yielding low-variance effect estimates even when outcomes such as final size or peak incidence vary widely between runs. We develop an exact, event-driven implementation that maintains infection and recovery events in priority queues. Cumulative infection-hazard updates require O(log N) time per event, yielding overall complexity O(Elog N) for E events in a population of size N. The implementation achieves computational performance comparable to the classical Gillespie algorithm while naturally accommodating non-Markovian infectious periods and complex infectiousness profiles. We illustrate the approach using distance-dependent spread of avian influenza between poultry farms in the Netherlands and a multilayer population with households, schools, and workplaces. In both examples, coupling enables efficient within-run comparisons of intervention scenarios across stochastic realisations.

We present FootNet, a 453-image multi-view smartphone foot dataset for binary foot segmentation, with expertannotated masks across six anatomical views (dorsal, medial, and plantar, both left and right). We benchmark four segmentation models under a controlled protocol: U-Net with a MobileNetV2 encoder achieves the best performance (IoU 0.9268, Dice 0.9608, 95 % CI [0.9209, 0.9320]); DeepLabV3 with MobileNetV3-Large scores IoU 0.8984 (Dice 0.9449); UNet++ with MobileNetV2 scores IoU 0.8913 (Dice 0.9391); and SAM ViT-B with oracle boundingbox prompt scores IoU 0.9219 on the matched 191-image subset. Bonferroni-corrected Wilcoxon signed-rank tests (k = 6 comparisons) show U-Net significantly outperforms DeepLab (p < 0.001, r = 0.638) and SAM ViT-B with oracle boundingbox (p = 0.005, r = 0.202); UNet++ does not significantly differ from DeepLab (p = 0.062). Connected-component postprocessing yields negligible benefit (mean {triangleup}IoU = +0.0003, 12 of 453 images improved). The extended dataset is available upon request

Background: Children born prematurely (before 37 weeks) or admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) are at increased risk of adverse long-term physical health outcomes. It is also recognised that there is an association with later academic performance and special educational needs, however it is not clear whether these broad risk factors could be used as stand-alone heuristics to identify children who may benefit from additional support in educational settings. We aimed to examine the associations between neonatal unit (NNU) admission and educational attainment in mid-childhood. Methods and Findings: Pregnancy data from a prospective birth cohort (Pregnancy Outcome Prediction Study, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2008-2012) were linked to national educational outcomes (Department for Education, United Kingdom). Multivariable regression models adjusted for maternal, child, and socioeconomic factors were used to evaluate associations between (i) all NNU admissions, (ii) at term NNU admissions >48 hours, (iii) preterm birth without ongoing physical health needs, and educational outcomes at ages 5-11 years. Children who required any NNU care were more likely not to meet expected educational standards across multiple ages and domains in early and mid-childhood: age 5 early year foundation (aOR 1.64, 95% CI 1.19-2.27, p=0.003), phonics at age 6 (aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.72-3.57, p<0.001), and at age 7 (here assessments were divided into multiple domains): reading (aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.38, p=0.004), writing (aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.25-2.38, p<0.001), mathematics (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.22, p=0.020), and science (aOR 1.85, 95% CI 1.22-2.78, p=0.003). Similar patterns were observed among both at term-born infants who stayed >48hrs in NNU (phonics assessment at age 6 aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.51-3.36, p<0.001) and in children born preterm without long-term physical health sequelae (phonics assessment at age 6 aOR 3.07, 95% CI 1.96-4.81, p<0.001). These associations were robust to adjustment for demographic, perinatal, and socio-economic factors. By age 11, differences in academic attainment were attenuated and no longer clearly distinguishable across all exposure groups. However, there was an increased likelihood of special educational needs (SEN) at age 11 associated with any NNU admission (aOR 1.78, 95% CI 1.15-2.73, p=0.009), at term NNU admission for >48hrs (aOR 1.88, 95% CI 1.19-3.00, p=0.007), and children born preterm without long-term physical health sequelae (aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.25, p=0.049). Predictive performance of any NNU admission for SEN at age 11 was moderate (AUC 0.70, 95% CI: 1.14-2.65, p=0.010), with balanced sensitivity and specificity and high negative predictive value. Conclusions: NNU admission, for both term and preterm infants, is associated with poorer educational outcomes and an increased likelihood of special educational needs in mid-childhood.

Background Post-infection conditions (PICs), such as Long Covid, are associated with heterogeneous, fluctuating symptoms that profoundly affect daily functioning. Despite moderate-certainty evidence from the NIHR-funded LISTEN trial (COV-LT2-0009) that personalised self management support improves outcomes and may reduce societal and economic impacts of Long Covid, many people living with PICs still receive condition-specific services, generic advice, or stand-alone digital tools that do not address their complex needs. Aim To map care approaches in general practice and synthesise UK evidence for PIC management. Design and setting Scoping review and online survey. Method A two-phase study was conducted: (1) a scoping review of UK evidence on PIC management in general practice; and (2) a supplementary online survey of practitioners working in UK general practice to provide contextual insights. Results The scoping review identified 32 studies focused on Long Covid. One study included a comparator group (ME/CFS). Study populations were predominantly white ethnicity and female. Evidence for non-Covid PICs in UK general practice was largely absent. The supplementary survey (n=46) provided preliminary practice-level insights. Healthcare practitioners reported varied PIC presentations, diagnostic uncertainty, limited referral pathways, inequitable access, and low confidence in managing PICs. Conclusion Evidence informing PIC management in UK general practice remains predominantly Long Covid-focused and may not reflect the range of PICs encountered in practice. While survey findings are preliminary and require confirmation in larger samples, they highlight uncertainty around PIC management. Further research is needed to evaluate whether existing Long Covid pathways should be expanded or complemented by broader PIC models. Keywords general practice; Long Covid; self-management; post-viral syndromes

Objective: There is a bidirectional relationship between emotional distress and pain. However, this relationship is understudied in people with HIV in low-resource settings. This study sought to describe the temporal relationship between emotional distress and pain in people with HIV. Design: Longitudinal observational study. Methods: Participants with virally suppressed HIV, reporting either no pain or persistent pain at baseline, provided weekly remote ratings of distress, worst pain, and average pain using 0-10 visual analogue scales. Within-individual fluctuations in distress and pain were visualised over time. Group-level correlations were determined using Spearman's correlation tests. Cumulative link mixed models assessed whether distress and pain each predicted the other in the following week. Results: 72 participants provided responses over 49 weeks. The participants had a median (IQR) age of 43 (37-51) years, 63% (n=45) were unemployed and most were females (n=51;71%). Distress and pain fluctuated concurrently within individuals: distress was positively correlated with worst pain ({rho}=0.66, 95% CI= 0.60-0.72, p<0.001) and average pain ({rho}=0.70, 95% CI=0.64-0.75, p<0.001) intensity within the same week. Worst pain (OR=1.42, 95% CI=1.17-1.71, p<0.001) and average pain (OR=1.43, 95% CI=1.20-1.71, p<0.001) intensity both predicted distress in the next week. Distress predicted worst pain intensity (OR=1.25, 95% CI=1.07-1.46, p=0.023) but not average pain intensity (OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.01-1.40, p=0.152) in the next week. Conclusions: The temporal relationship between distress and worst pain intensity was bidirectional, whereas distress did not temporally predict average pain intensity. Both pain and emotional distress should receive attention from HIV research and clinical care in low-resource settings.